About Yellow Square
Why "Yellow Square"?
On golf courses, the yellow flag marks the hole location. It's what every player is aiming for.
In golf statistics, colored squares represent finishes — you'll see them on Wikipedia and leaderboards. Gold for a win, green for top 5, yellow for top 10. We use the same system to track bets and show you where the value is.
The Model
⚠️ Model Development: We are refining our proprietary Yellow Square model and verifying profitability to ensure sustainable, legitimate results for our users. Results shown represent simulated picks during model development.
We use advanced predictive models that simulate thousands of tournament outcomes based on player skill ratings, course fit, and current form.
We compare those probabilities to real sportsbook odds from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and others. When the model says a player has a better chance than the odds imply, that's a positive expected value (+EV) bet.
Our probabilities are calibrated using backtesting across 5+ years of PGA Tour data (2021-2026), correcting for each market's systematic tendencies. Make Cut and Top 5 markets have shown the strongest edge historically.
What We Do
- Find +EV bets across Make Cut, Miss Cut, Top 5, Top 10, Top 20, and Win markets
- Compare odds across multiple sportsbooks
- View live tournament analytics and projections
- Track our model development progress and performance verification