Question 1

What is Yellow Square Golf?

Accepted Answer

Yellow Square Golf is a golf betting analytics platform that uses predictive modeling to identify positive expected value (+EV) betting opportunities. We compare our model's probabilities to sportsbook odds across PGA Tour, DP World Tour, and Korn Ferry Tour events to find bets where you have an edge.

Question 2

What does +EV mean?

Accepted Answer

Expected Value (EV) measures whether a bet is profitable long-term. A +EV bet means the payout odds are better than the true probability suggests. For example, if a player has a true 35% chance to finish top 10 but the sportsbook odds imply only 30%, that's a +EV bet. Over time, consistently making +EV bets will be profitable.

Question 3

Is Yellow Square free?

Accepted Answer

Yes! PGA Tour outright bets are completely free with no account required. A free account unlocks matchup odds and bet tracking features. We also offer a premium subscription ($15/month or $79/year) for access to DP World Tour and LIV Golf picks.

Question 4

Do I need to create an account?

Accepted Answer

You need a free account to view matchup odds and use the bet tracking feature. PGA Tour outright bets can be viewed without an account. All accounts are free - you only need to pay if you want premium features like DP World Tour and LIV Golf coverage.

Question 5

How does your model work?

Accepted Answer

We use advanced golf simulation models (similar to DataGolf's approach) that run thousands of tournament simulations based on player skill ratings, recent form, course fit, and historical performance. The model produces probabilities for each outcome (win, top 5, top 10, etc.), which we then calibrate based on 5+ years of historical data to correct for systematic biases.

Question 6

What is calibration and why do you use it?

Accepted Answer

Calibration adjusts raw model probabilities to match real-world results. Golf models tend to be overconfident in favorites and underconfident in longshots. For example, when our raw model says a player has a 40% chance to win a tournament, historically they might only win 34% of the time. We apply a 0.85x calibration factor to correct this. Each market (win, top 5, matchups, etc.) has its own calibration factor based on backtesting.

Question 7

How accurate is the model?

Accepted Answer

Our calibrated probabilities have shown strong accuracy across 2021-2026 PGA Tour data. Make Cut and Top 5 markets have been particularly profitable historically. You can view our complete track record with verified results on the Track Record page. Remember that even with an edge, variance means short-term results will fluctuate.

Question 8

Where does the odds data come from?

Accepted Answer

We pull live odds from 13-15 major sportsbooks including DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, Bet365, BetRivers, and others. The number of books varies by tournament and market. We always show you the best available odds across all books we track.

Question 9

Do you have data for every tournament?

Accepted Answer

We cover all PGA Tour events, most DP World Tour events, and select Korn Ferry Tour events. Some smaller international tournaments may not have full coverage due to limited sportsbook offerings. Premium subscribers get access to DP World Tour and LIV Golf when available.

Question 10

How do I find the best bets?

Accepted Answer

Go to the Betting page to see all current +EV opportunities. You can filter by market type (win, top 5, top 10, etc.), sportsbook, and minimum edge percentage. Bets are sorted by Kelly percentage by default, which accounts for both edge and odds. Higher Kelly percentages indicate stronger betting opportunities.

Question 11

What's the difference between Edge % and Kelly %?

Accepted Answer

Edge % is the raw advantage you have: (Model Probability - Implied Probability) / Implied Probability. Kelly % tells you what percentage of your bankroll to wager using the Kelly Criterion formula, which factors in both your edge and the odds. Kelly % is more useful for bet sizing because it accounts for risk-adjusted value.

Question 12

Should I bet every +EV opportunity shown?

Accepted Answer

Not necessarily. Having a positive edge doesn't guarantee profit on any single bet. Consider factors like: (1) Minimum edge threshold (many bettors only bet edges above 3-5%), (2) Your bankroll and risk tolerance, (3) Confidence in the specific bet, (4) Availability at your sportsbook. Quality over quantity is generally better than betting everything shown.

Question 13

What edge percentage should I look for?

Accepted Answer

This depends on your betting strategy and risk tolerance. Many successful bettors use a minimum threshold of 3-5% edge. Smaller edges (1-3%) can be profitable but require larger sample sizes and more precise execution. Larger edges (5%+) are rarer but offer better risk-adjusted returns.

Question 14

How often are odds updated?

Accepted Answer

Odds are updated every 5-10 minutes before tournaments begin and hourly during events. Sportsbooks adjust their lines constantly, so an edge shown might disappear by the time you go to place the bet. This is normal - sharp bettors and high volume can move lines quickly.

Question 15

What is Kelly Criterion and should I use it?

Accepted Answer

Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula for optimal bet sizing: Kelly % = Edge / Odds. It maximizes long-term bankroll growth while managing risk. Most experienced bettors use "fractional Kelly" (typically 25% or "Quarter Kelly") to reduce volatility. For example, if full Kelly suggests betting 2% of your bankroll, Quarter Kelly would be 0.5%.

Question 16

How much should I bet per pick?

Accepted Answer

This depends on your bankroll and risk tolerance. We recommend: (1) Never bet more than 1-2% of your total bankroll on a single bet, (2) Use Kelly Criterion (or fractional Kelly) for sizing, (3) Start with smaller stakes until you're comfortable with the approach, (4) Keep detailed records to track performance. Use our Kelly Calculator tool to help determine proper stake sizes.

Question 17

How do I manage my bankroll?

Accepted Answer

Set aside a specific amount for golf betting that you can afford to lose. This is your bankroll. Never add to it after losses or withdraw from it after wins during a season. Bet consistent percentages (0.25-1% per bet using Kelly) and track everything. Proper bankroll management is more important than finding great picks.

Question 18

What's the difference between outrights and matchups?

Accepted Answer

Outrights are bets on a player to achieve a specific tournament result (win, top 5, top 10, make cut, etc.). Matchups are head-to-head bets on which player will finish higher. Matchups typically have lower variance and more predictable edges, while outrights offer larger potential payouts but more variance.

Question 19

Can I trust tournament matchups vs 2-balls?

Accepted Answer

Both can be profitable, but they have different characteristics. Tournament matchups (full event) have more variance but we apply a 0.85x calibration (15% discount). 2-balls and 3-balls are less variable and we apply a 0.96x calibration (4% discount). Round markets (2-balls, 3-balls) often have tighter edges but more frequent betting opportunities.

Question 20

Where can I see your track record?

Accepted Answer

Visit the Track Record page to see our complete verified betting history. We show every bet placed, tournament-by-tournament results, win rates, profit/loss, and ROI across all markets. Full transparency is important to us.

Question 21

How do you track results?

Accepted Answer

All bets are logged in our database with timestamps, odds, stakes, and model probabilities. After tournaments conclude, we update results based on official leaderboards. You can filter by market type, tournament, and date range to analyze performance.

Question 22

Why do some bets show as "push" or "void"?

Accepted Answer

Bets can be voided if a player withdraws before the tournament starts or doesn't complete enough rounds. Some matchup bets may push if players tie. When this happens, your stake is returned and the bet has no impact on your profit/loss.

Question 23

What do I get with a premium subscription?

Accepted Answer

Premium subscribers get access to +EV picks for DP World Tour and LIV Golf events. All PGA Tour content remains free. Premium also supports continued development of new features and tools.

Question 24

How much does premium cost?

Accepted Answer

Premium is $15/month or $79/year (save 56% with annual). Payment is handled securely through Stripe. You can cancel anytime from your Stripe account.

Question 25

Can I cancel anytime?

Accepted Answer

Yes, you can cancel your subscription at any time. You'll retain access through the end of your current billing period. Manage your subscription through the Stripe customer portal.

Question 26

Do you offer refunds?

Accepted Answer

Due to the nature of betting information services, we don't offer refunds. However, you can cancel at any time to avoid future charges. We encourage you to use the free PGA Tour content first to evaluate our approach before subscribing.

Question 27

Why did a bet I was looking at disappear?

Accepted Answer

Odds change constantly as sportsbooks adjust their lines based on betting action and sharp money. An edge shown on our site may disappear within minutes as the market moves. This is normal and happens to all bettors. The key is acting quickly when you see opportunities.

Question 28

Why are odds different at my sportsbook?

Accepted Answer

Odds can vary between books and change rapidly. We show the best odds available across all books we track at the time of our last update. By the time you check your book, the line may have moved. Some books also restrict certain markets or odds for certain players.

Question 29

Do you have an API?

Accepted Answer

We don't currently offer a public API, but this is something we're considering for the future. If you're interested in API access for research or development purposes, contact us to discuss options.

Question 30

Is there a mobile app?

Accepted Answer

We don't have a native mobile app yet, but our website is fully mobile-optimized and works great on phones and tablets. You can add it to your home screen for a more app-like experience.

Frequently Asked Questions

Getting Started

The Model

Using the Site

Betting Strategy

Results & Tracking

Premium & Subscriptions

Technical

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