PGA Championship 2026: Aaron Rai Makes History at Aronimink
The Tournament
Aaron Rai won his first major championship at the 2026 PGA Championship, firing a final-round 66 to finish at 9-under par and claim victory at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania.
The 31-year-old Englishman began Sunday three shots behind 54-hole leader Alex Smalley at -3, with no one else in the field better than -4. It was a bunched leaderboard with opportunity for anyone who could go low.
Rai went low.
The Final Round
Rai's charge began early. After starting with pars, he reached the par-5 ninth at -3 and three back of the lead. A perfectly struck approach left him with an eagle putt, and he rolled it in to vault to -5 and into solo second place.
From there, Rai was relentless. Birdies at 11 and 13 moved him to -7. Another at 16 pushed him to -8 and three clear of Justin Thomas's clubhouse lead. But the decisive moment came at the iconic par-3 17th.
Facing a long birdie putt from 70 feet, Rai struck it perfectly. The ball tracked toward the hole, held its line, and dropped. The crowd around the green erupted as Rai remained characteristically calm and composed. At -9, the championship was effectively his.
On the 18th, Rai needed only a tap-in par to secure the victory. He delivered, then waited as the final two groups finished their rounds. No one challenged his -9 total.
What Happened to the Leaders
Alex Smalley entered Sunday with the 54-hole lead at -6, but struggled early. A +2 front nine derailed his chances. Despite making an eagle at 16 to briefly re-enter the conversation, he couldn't recover from the early damage and finished outside the top 5.
Matti Schmid was in the final pairing and climbed to -6 during his round, matching Smalley's starting position. But he couldn't sustain it, finishing at -5 in a tie for fourth. A solid week, but not enough to catch Rai's late surge.
The Big Names Never Showed. Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, and Xander Schauffele—three of the betting favorites entering the week—stayed neutral on Sunday and never mounted a serious challenge. All three finished well back of the lead.
The Storylines
Rai's Maiden Major. Aaron Rai became the first Englishman to win the PGA Championship since 1919, ending a 107-year drought. It's his first major title and cements his place in golf history.
The 70-Footer at 17. That birdie putt on 17 will be replayed for years. With the championship on the line, Rai drained a 70-foot bomb to extend his lead and effectively seal the victory. His calm, composed demeanor throughout—even after making the putt—showcased the mental fortitude of a major champion.
Smalley's Missed Opportunity. The 54-hole lead is a coveted position in major championship golf, and Smalley let it slip away. A +2 front nine on Sunday is tough to overcome, and despite the eagle at 16, it wasn't enough.
Quiet Sunday from the Stars. The big names who were supposed to contend—Rahm, McIlroy, Schauffele—never materialized. All three played steady golf but couldn't generate the magic needed to challenge Rai's charge.
Our Betting Card
We posted 118 bets across multiple markets over five days. The final result was 52-60-6, +$1,214.90, +11.6% ROI.
A profitable week driven by dominant make cut performance and solid matchup execution. Here's the full breakdown:
Make Cut: 18-7 / +$5,744 / +67.5% ROI Round Matchups: 18-12-6 / +$304 / +7.1% ROI 3-Ball: 8-6 / +$408 / +16.4% ROI Top 20: 3-10 / +$336 / +14.0% ROI Tournament Matchups: 4-3 / +$393 / +43.0% ROI FRL: 1-6 / +$18 / +229% ROI Top 5: 0-4 / -$88 / -81% ROI Top 10: 0-2 / -$62 / -100% ROI Win: 0-10 / -$129 / -72% ROI
What Went Right
The make cut slate was historic. 18-7 for +$5,744 in profit is the best single-market performance of our season. We identified value on players the books were overpricing to miss the cut, and the model calibrations were dialed in perfectly.
Key winners: - Ryan Gerard make cut (-152) for +$570 - Daniel Hillier make cut (-112) for +$647 - Ben Griffin make cut (-192) for +$423 - Alex Noren make cut (-184) for +$421 - Mikael Lindberg make cut (+106) for +$409 - Ryo Hisatsune make cut (-140) for +$502 - Min Woo Lee make cut (-225) for +$335
Matchups executed well. After tightening our edge minimums following The Players, we stayed disciplined and it paid off. Round matchups went 18-12-6 for +$304, and we avoided the high-volume trap that burned us in March.
The 3-ball slate was particularly strong: 8-6 for +$408. Ricky Castillo (+270) in Round 2 delivered +$556, and Stephan Jaeger (+235) in Round 1 returned +$405.
Tournament matchups also came through at 4-3 for +$393. Jon Rahm over Cameron Young (+110) and Rory McIlroy over Scottie Scheffler (+157) both cashed.
Top 20 hit the right names. Min Woo Lee top 20 at +265 returned +$176, and Maverick McNealy (+350) and Kurt Kitayama (+350) also delivered. Despite a 3-10 record, we profited +$336 by betting the right players at the right prices.
FRL longshot hit. Min Woo Lee FRL at +6000 paid +$18 on a $2.28 stake. These are lottery tickets, but they add up.
What Went Wrong
Top 5, Top 10, and Win went winless. We went 0-16 combined across these three markets for -$279. Min Woo Lee was our best shot—he made a run and finished T20, inside our top 20 market but outside top 5 (+1475). Kurt Kitayama finished T13 (top 20 hit, top 5 missed). Thomas Detry withdrew after Round 2, costing us top 20 and top 10 exposure.
The win market remains the toughest—0-10 for -$129 this week. Aaron Rai wasn't on our card. The model projected him as a middle-of-the-pack finisher, not a major champion. That's the nature of golf—variance is brutal.
Some brutal 3-ball beats. Despite the strong 8-6 record and +$408 profit, we had some losses that stung. Sudarshan Yellamaraju 3-ball at +175 lost despite solid play. Sami Valimaki 3-ball at +240 (vs. Aaron Rai / Trav Smyth) would've been a monster—Rai won the tournament, but Valimaki didn't win the 3-ball.
Matchup volume still needs refinement. We posted 36 round matchups over four days, down from the 50+ we posted at The Players. The 18-12-6 record is solid, but the juice and pushes eat into margins. We're capping daily volume at 8 matchups max going forward and raising edge minimums another notch.
The Takeaway
This was a breakthrough week for the make cut market. 18-7 for +$5,744 is the kind of performance that validates the model's calibration work. The pre-tournament process is firing on all cylinders.
The matchups showed discipline. We avoided the volume trap, stayed selective, and executed at a high level. The 3-ball and tournament matchup slates both delivered strong ROI.
The pain points remain in the aspirational markets—top 5, top 10, win. Going 0-16 hurts, even when the dollar impact is only -$279. We're continuing to refine the model's approach to identifying true contenders.
But when you win +$1,215 on a major championship week with an 11.6% ROI, you take it. The process is working.
Looking Ahead: THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Next up is TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas—a birdie-fest layout where scoring is paramount and the winner typically posts -20 or better. It's a completely different skill set than Aronimink: length, putting, and red-hot streaks matter more than precision ball-striking.
Scottie Scheffler is the defending champion after shooting -31 last year and clearing the field by eight strokes. He's the favorite again this week.
Our model has already identified value in multiple markets. Picks are live on the site.
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Full betting card at yellowsquaregolf.com/ev-bets →
All-time results tracked at yellowsquaregolf.com/track-record →
Model output — not financial advice.