Puerto Rico Open 2026: Model Performance Recap
What Happened
Ricky Castillo won his first PGA Tour title at Grand Reserve Golf Club, finishing 17-under 271, one shot ahead of Chandler Blanchet. The defining moment came at the par-4 13th in the final round. Eighteen-year-old Blades Brown—who turned pro before graduating high school in January—held a one-shot lead with six holes to play and was on the verge of becoming the youngest PGA Tour winner in 95 years. He then went from a bunker to the water and made triple bogey, handing the tournament to Castillo.
Castillo, playing in the group behind Brown, birdied 13 and 14 to seize control and played a bogey-free final round. He had narrowly missed the Arnold Palmer Invitational field by just 11 FedEx Cup points. The win earned him a spot in The Players Championship the following week and his first major invitation. Blanchet birdied the final hole to share second, while Brown recovered for T3—his first PGA Tour top-10.
Outright Model Performance
Puerto Rico was a strong outright week, finishing 28-48-0 for +$401.07 (+2.01u). The Top 20 market was the headline performer, going 6-22 for +$411.11 (+2.06u). In an opposite-field week, books often underprice players in finishing position markets—the model exploited that systematically.
Make Cut went 18-7 for +$312.40 (+1.56u), continuing the model's season-long strength in that market. The combination of Top 20 and Make Cut edge was the core of the week's return.
Top 10 was the drag at 2-8 / -$269.22 / -1.35u. Top 5 and FRL also had negative weeks, consistent with the variance expected from small-sample markets at an opposite-field event.
Best Bet of the Week
Top 20 Market: 6-22 / +$411.11 / +2.06u - The model found consistent edge across a large number of players the market had undervalued in finishing position markets. Kevin Streelman, Rafael Campos, and Ryan Gerard were among the key winners, with the model identifying value that books overlooked in the weaker field.
P&L Summary
Top 5: 2-6 / -$27.08 / -0.14u
Top 10: 2-8 / -$269.22 / -1.35u
Top 20: 6-22 / +$411.11 / +2.06u
FRL: 0-5 / -$26.14 / -0.13u
Make Cut: 18-7 / +$312.40 / +1.56u
Overall: 28-48 / +$401.07 / +2.01u
Takeaway
An opposite-field week where the model did exactly what it is designed to do—find mispricing in markets where books are less attentive. Puerto Rico reinforces a key principle: the model does not need to pick the winner to generate returns. Ricky Castillo was not a major model output this week. The value was in the finishing position and make cut markets across a broad field.
Top 20 and Make Cut combined for over +3.6u of profit, demonstrating that systematic edge identification across multiple players can produce strong returns even when individual win probabilities are low. This is the model working as intended in an opposite-field environment.
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