Valspar Championship 2026: Fitzpatrick Ends Drought at Copperhead
The Tournament
Matt Fitzpatrick claimed his first PGA Tour victory since 2023 at the Valspar Championship, carding a final-round 3-under 68 at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Florida. Fitzpatrick finished 11-under for the week, holding off David Lipsky by a single stroke in a dramatic Sunday finish.
The 2022 U.S. Open champion entered the final round three shots behind 54-hole leader Sungjae Im, who had held the top of the leaderboard through all three opening rounds. Im unraveled on Sunday with a 2-over 74, carding four bogeys across his first eight holes to gift the field an opening they would not squander.
Final Round Drama
Fitzpatrick and Lipsky went stride for stride through the back nine, both navigating the notoriously difficult Snake Pit with pars on the 16th and 17th. The decisive moment came on the 18th, where Fitzpatrick threaded his drive into the narrow fairway and hit a dart inside 15 feet, draining the birdie putt to take the solo lead. Lipsky, in the group behind, could not match him after finding the rough off the tee.
Jordan Smith's 5-under 66 gave him the clubhouse lead for an extended period and earned him a career-best finish at 9-under, his second top 10 on the PGA Tour. Xander Schauffele posted a 6-under 65 to finish T4 at 8-under, continuing his strong run of form following a solid Players Championship.
Final Leaderboard
1. Matt Fitzpatrick — 11-under (Winner) 2. David Lipsky — 10-under 3. Jordan Smith — 9-under T4. Xander Schauffele — 8-under T4. Patrick Cantlay — 8-under T4. Lee Hodges — 8-under
Yellow Square Golf Model Performance
The Yellow Square Golf model had a standout week at Valspar, finishing +10.61 units overall — the second best week of the 2026 PGA Tour season. Fitzpatrick was the anchor of the week, cashing in Win (+2000), Top 5 (+470), Top 10 (+230), and Top 20 (+115) markets for a combined +6.34 units across those four bets alone.
The round matchup market was equally impressive, going 18-9-3 across all four rounds for +4.34 units at 17.2% ROI. The highlight was a perfect 9-0 sweep of the final round, headlined by Cantlay winning both of his matchups. The Top 5 market led all markets at +5.81 units despite a 2-7 record, with Fitzpatrick (+470) and Smith (+1400) both cashing as longshot hits.
The miss cut market was the biggest drag on the week at -3.58u, with the make cut market also contributing to losses at -0.95u. Overall the week demonstrated the model's strength in placement and round matchup markets.
Key Model Calls
Fitzpatrick Win at +2000: The model identified significant edge (+6.92%) on Fitzpatrick at a price that reflected the market's underestimation of his form coming off a runner-up at The Players Championship. Returned +1.73u.
Lee Hodges Top 20 at +750: One of the biggest value plays of the week. Hodges finished T4 at 8-under. The model had +49.75% edge on this bet.
Jordan Smith Top 5 at +1400: Smith's final-round charge to a career-best finish made this a massive winner. The model saw +12.80% edge at the opening price.
R4 Matchup Sweep: Nine bets, nine wins. Cantlay won both of his matchups on Sunday, making what looked like chalk plays into a 75.1% ROI day.
Market Breakdown
Top 5: 2-7 / +5.81u / +87.5% ROI
Round Matchups: 18-9-3 / +4.34u / +17.2% ROI
Top 20: 4-17 / +3.01u / +29.1% ROI
Win: 1-0 / +1.73u / +22.0% ROI
3-Ball: 5-6 / +1.46u / +52.9% ROI
Top 10: 3-9 / -0.14u / -1.2% ROI
FRL: 0-5 / -0.31u / -100% ROI
Tournament Matchups: 2-1 / -0.76u / -25.3% ROI
Make Cut: 10-6 / -0.95u / -5.9% ROI
Miss Cut: 4-8 / -3.58u / -29.8% ROI
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TOTAL: 49-68-3 / +10.61u / +8.8% ROI
The Takeaway
Valspar confirmed what we've been learning: pre-tournament placement markets and selective round matchups are where the model excels. The Fitzpatrick sweep across four markets showed the power of identifying underpriced talent at the right time. The Top 5 market led the way at +5.81u despite a 2-7 record, demonstrating the value of longshot placement bets.
The final round matchup sweep wasn't luck — it was the result of better calibration adjustments we made after The Players. When the model has high conviction on Sunday matchups, trust it. The make cut and miss cut markets both struggled this week, and we're evaluating our edge thresholds in those markets going forward.
Looking Ahead
The Texas Children's Houston Open is next, followed by The Masters. Our model has identified early value in Houston's placement markets as the field shapes up. Pre-tournament picks are live on the site.
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Model output — not financial advice.